Summary : The Mediterranean container is a an ar of cultural and see richness, and exceptional diversity. Climate and also environmental changes resulting from human activity in this an ar have accelerated for the last few decades. Throughout this duration the average annual temperatures the the air and also the sea have increased, sea-level has risen and also the water acidification is ongoing. Problems tend to be warmer and also drier. These changes imply numerous risks for ecosystems and for human being well-being. Therefore, that is vital to update and also consolidate the best scientific knowledge about climate and environmental change in the Mediterranean basin and to render it accessible to policy-makers, an essential stakeholders and also citizens. This is the target of the very first ptcouncil.net report.

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The Mediterranean Sea is surrounded by 3 continents: Africa, Asia and Europe. The social richness approximately the Mediterranean is exceptional. This is likewise a region of continuous change. It is shaped by person activities, including land usage changes, industry and population growth, linked with the expansion of seaside urban areas (UNEP/MAP 2012). This press is further amplified by the advance of travel in highly attractive Mediterranean coastal areas, and rapidly evolving changes in usage patterns, as a an outcome of increasing breakthrough (Plan smoke 2012). The Mediterranean Sea is also one that the world’s busiest shipping paths (UNEP/MAP-Plan bleu 2009). Moreover, that is a region of contrasts, together it contains countries with really different levels of income and social development. Regardless of a far-ranging progress do in emerging countries ~ above the southerly shore of the Mediterranean, North-South fracture remains. The an ar faces unequal distribution of resources, conflicts and also large-scale migration (AllEnvi 2016).

The Mediterranean an ar is likewise characterized through the richness and the diversity of its landscapes, going native subtropical deserts to pleasant mid-latitude regions. That is a hotspot of biodiversity. The Mediterranean Sea master 4% come 18% of all established marine species, which is substantial given the it just accounts for 0.82% the the worldwide ocean surface (Coll et al. 2010). This biodiversity hotspot is intimidated by several and also often synergistic anthropogenic stressors (Boero 2015).

Moreover, the Mediterranean an ar is exposed to several natural risks, choose earthquakes, volcano eruptions, floods, fires or droughts. In this complex situation, the Mediterranean faces brand-new challenges, due to global climate change. Based on global climate scenarios, the Mediterranean Sea has been classified as among the most responsive regions to climate change (Giorgi 2006). In the Mediterranean region, average yearly temperatures are currently 1.4 °C higher than during the duration 1880-1899, well above current global warming trends, especially during summer (Fig. 1). As for the future projections, the 2 °C global mean temperature target suggests 3 °C warming in warm temperature extremes in the Mediterranean an ar (Seneviratne et al. 2016). Depending on the climate script (RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway) and also the season, a climb in temperature native 2 to 6 ° C by 2100 is expected in the Mediterranean (for summer temperatures: Fig. 2; IPCC 2013). High temperature events and heat tide are most likely to become more frequent and/or more extreme (Jacob et al. 2014).

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Fig. 1. Warming that the atmosphere (annual mean temperature anomalies through respect to the period 1880-1899), in the Mediterranean basin (blue lines, with and also without smoothing) and for the world (green line). In the Mediterranean region, average yearly temperatures are currently 1.4 °C higher than throughout the period 1880-1899, well above current an international warming trends. Data native Berkeley Earth easily accessible at http://berkeleyearth.org/

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Fig. 2. Time series of temperature adjust relative to 1986-2005 averaged over floor grid point out in the region South Europe/Mediterranean (30°N to 45 °N, 10°W come 40°E) in June to August. Top top the right-hand side the 5th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th and 95th percentiles the the distribution of 20-year mean transforms are provided for 2081-2100 in the four RCP scenarios. A rise in temperature native 2 to 6 ° C by 2100 is intended in the Mediterranean.

 

The sea-level in the Mediterranean has actually risen between 1945-2000 at a rate of 0.7±0.2 mm/yr (Calafat and also Gomis 2009). The calculation rise throughout the last two years was of about 3 cm/decade (Tsimplis et al. 2013). The future total Mediterranean container averaged sea-level rise has actually been approximated to be between 9.8 and 25.6 cm by 2040–2050 depending upon the script (Galassi and Spada 2014). Warming of the Mediterranean Sea surface is at this time estimated in ~ 0.4 °C/decade because that the duration 1985-2006 (Nykjaer 2009). Concerning future changes, the Balearic Islands, the northwest Ionian, the Aegean and Levantine Seas have actually been identified as the areas with maximum rise of sea surface ar temperature (Fig. 3; Adloff et al. 2015). The Mediterranean Sea acidification is currently detectable (Howes et al. 2015).

Analyses of permanent trends in the Mediterranean region show that yearly mean problems tend to it is in warmer and also drier (UNEP/MAP-Plan bleu 2009). Frequency and also intensity of droughts have increased significantly in the Mediterranean due to the fact that 1950 (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2014). The rise of the size of dry spell (days) is supposed (Schleussner et al. 2016) and also the decrease in precipitation, especially in summer and also with important regional differences (for summer, Fig. 4; IPCC 2013).

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Fig. 3. Expected minimum and maximum changes in sea surface temperature because that the 2070–2099 duration (vs. 1961–1990) based ~ above a 6-member ensemble covering miscellaneous sources of uncertain (°C). The Balearic Islands, the northwest Ionian, the Aegean and Levantine Seas have been established as the regions with maximum rise of sea surface ar temperature (refer come : Adloff et al. 2015, because that the details that the analysis)

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Fig. 4. Time collection of relative adjust relative to 1986––2005 in precipitation averaged over floor grid clues in the an ar South Europe/Mediterranean (30°N come 45°N, 10°W to 40°E) in October to March. On the right–hand next the 5th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th and 95th percentiles that the circulation of 20-year mean alters are offered for 2081-2100 in the 4 RCP scenarios. The decrease in precipitation, especially in summer is expected.

Consequences that climate readjust described here over imply many risks for ecosystems and also for human being well-being. In addition to direct aftermath of climate change, there are countless combined after-effects of different environmental changes resulting from human being pressures, choose landscape and also ecosystem destruction due to industrialization, urbanization and transport (pollution that air, water, soil and also living resources) and unsustainable of use mineral and also living resources of the land and also the sea. Difficulties resulting from these changes concern assorted domains, like fishing industry, agriculture, woodland management and also commercial and recreation activities.

In this context, taking into account the environment in economic and also political decisions have to be a priority because that the future of the Mediterranean. Policy responses come climate adjust should be based upon scientific evidence. Consideration of scientific evidence consists of clear communication of uncertainties as component of normal practice. If the skepticism indications could make the clinical assessment more an overwhelming to incorporate in policy-making, uncertainties need to not be provided as one excuse because that inaction. Top top the contrary, the assessment should aid people to better understand the intricacy of links amongst climate, environmental and also societal parameters. Over there is one urgent must update and consolidate the finest scientific knowledge about climate and also environmental change in the Mediterranean basin and also to render it available to policy-makers, key stakeholders and citizens. A an extensive amount of observations and scientific volume for threat assessment exist around the Mediterranean, but resources are unevenly distributed and also some of the most vulnerable regions and economic sectors room insufficiently studied. Over there is also a widely shared concern that, in the Mediterranean region, research activities, surveillance data and other expertise generation about climate readjust and other environmental transforms are strongly biased come the North and also insufficiently coordinated. Public and private decision-makers because of this have insufficient accessibility to the currently knowledge. For all these reasons, ptcouncil.net is prepare its very first ptcouncil.net report top top the present state and also risks of climate and also environmental readjust in the Mediterranean.

Adloff F, Somot S, Sevault F, Jorda G, Aznar R, Deque M, Herrmann M, Marcos M, Dubois C, Padorno E, Alvarez-Fanjul E, Gomis D (2015) Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios. Climate Dynamics, 45 (9-10), 2775-2802AllEnvi (ed.) (2016) The Mediterranean region under climate change. Paris : IRD Editions, 736 pp.

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